2025 NBA Awards and Playoff Predictions: SGA Edges Jokic for MVP, Lakers Reach Finals

With the NBA playoffs underway and award results trickling in, it’s time to share my picks and postseason predictions. As always, it’s an honor to vote—though, admittedly, hours of film and sleepless nights made this year especially tough.

But the ballot is in. The playoffs have begun. And here’s how I see the season unfolding.

MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

This season, the best player on the best team deserves the league’s highest honor. Gilgeous-Alexander led the youngest team in the NBA to an incredible 68 wins, while averaging a league-best 32.7 points on 51.9% shooting.

Even more impressive, he had the most 20-, 30-, 40-, and 50-point games in the league. His turnover rate was the lowest among all players with similar usage in the past two decades. That alone is historic.

However, it was his elite two-way impact that pushed him past Nikola Jokic. He was among the top defenders on the NBA’s best defensive team, led the league in win shares and defensive win shares, and finished top-five in steals. While Jokic dominated offensively, SGA’s all-around excellence sealed it.

Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green

Victor Wembanyama was the early favorite. But after his season was cut short in February due to a serious shoulder condition, the door opened—and Draymond Green walked through it.

Green is still the most cerebral defender in basketball. He guards all five positions, anticipates plays before they unfold, and consistently frustrates stars like Zion Williamson and Giannis Antetokounmpo. After the All-Star break, the Warriors surged to become the league’s top-rated defensive team. Overall, they finished seventh.

Beyond the eye test, the numbers support him too. Green ranked No. 1 in defensive LEBRON, one of the most reliable advanced defensive metrics.

Coach of the Year: Kenny Atkinson

The Cavaliers weren’t just good this year—they shattered expectations. Under Atkinson, they went from playoff hopefuls to Eastern Conference favorites, clinching the top seed and boasting the league’s highest-rated offense.

Atkinson revamped the system, prioritizing ball movement and three-point shooting, while easing the burden on Donovan Mitchell. Cleveland started the season 15-0 and never looked back. Their offensive transformation from 16th to 1st is a testament to elite coaching.

Rookie of the Year: Stephon Castle

In a relatively weak rookie class, Stephon Castle stood out just enough. He averaged 14.7 points, 4.1 assists, and 3.7 rebounds while shooting 42.8% in 81 games.

Castle led all rookies in scoring. He also won Rising Stars MVP, and placed second in the slam dunk contest. He was one of just four rookies with multiple 30-point games. It wasn’t a blowout win, but Castle was the most consistent of the bunch.

Finals Prediction: Celtics vs. Lakers

In the East, the defending champion Celtics will return to the Finals. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have deep playoff experience, and their chemistry is unmatched. Although Cleveland has had a fantastic season, their lack of postseason cohesion will cost them.

In the West, the Lakers will emerge. Why? Because LeBron James, now 40, knows his window is closing. He’s paired with Luka Doncic, who led Dallas to the Finals last year before being traded in a blockbuster February deal.

LeBron has been to the Finals 10 times, winning four rings. Doncic is still in his prime, and together they’ll form a lethal trio with Austin Reaves. This group knows how to elevate in the playoffs, and defenses will struggle to contain them.

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